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This study introduces the Epidemiologic Transition Estimate (ETE) index to measure societal health shifts. The index reveals a faster transition in females and highlights varying progress across country income groups.

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Demography
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Societies undergo epidemiological transitions marked by demographic, societal, and health shifts.
  • Acute communicable diseases impact early mortality, while chronic diseases dominate the life course disease burden.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate the Epidemiologic Transition Estimate (ETE) index.
  • To measure the stage of epidemiological transition across countries and sexes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) data from 1990-2019.
  • Calculated the ETE index as the ratio of Years of Life Lost due to Disability (YLD) to Years of Life Lost (YLL).
  • Analyzed data across 195 countries, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles.

Main Results:

  • ETE index values varied significantly between males (0.131-1.067) and females (0.180-2.108).
  • The epidemiological transition appears to progress more rapidly in females than males.
  • A consistent increase in the ETE index was observed across five SDI-based country groups, indicating distinct transition stages.

Conclusions:

  • The ETE index demonstrates robustness in assessing epidemiological transition progress.
  • Findings suggest potential differences in transition speed between sexes.
  • The index can inform future health and social care system planning to address disability and mortality burdens.