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In Vitro Analysis of Myd88-mediated Cellular Immune Response to West Nile Virus Mutant Strain Infection
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Temperature influences West Nile virus evolution and adaptation.

R L Fay, M Cruz-Loya, J G Maffei

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    Rising temperatures are increasing West Nile virus (WNV) genetic diversity and transmission potential in New York State. Contemporary WNV strains show enhanced fitness in mosquitoes at warmer temperatures, posing a greater public health risk.

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    Area of Science:

    • Arbovirology
    • Climate Change Science
    • Epidemiology

    Background:

    • West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common mosquito-borne disease in the continental U.S., endemic in New York State (NYS) since 1999.
    • NYS has experienced rising temperatures (0.14°C per decade since 1900), correlated with increased WNV transmission.
    • Temperature is a known factor influencing WNV fitness and transmission dynamics.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To investigate the impact of rising temperatures on WNV genetic diversity and transmission potential.
    • To compare the fitness and vector competence of contemporary WNV strains against historic strains under varying temperatures.
    • To understand how climate change may facilitate the emergence of more virulent WNV strains.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of surveillance and sequencing data to correlate temperature with WNV prevalence and genetic diversity.
    • Experimental assessment of vector competence in *Culex pipiens* mosquitoes using contemporary (2017-2018) and historic (2003-2004) WNV strains.
    • Calculation of relative R₀ (basic reproduction number) at different temperatures (20°C, 24°C, 28°C) to quantify transmission potential.

    Main Results:

    • A significant positive correlation was found between rising temperatures, increased WNV genetic diversity, and higher WNV prevalence.
    • Contemporary WNV strains demonstrated significantly higher transmission potential in *Culex pipiens* at elevated temperatures compared to historic strains.
    • Genotypic and phenotypic diversity of contemporary WNV strains is greater, enabling adaptation to warmer climates.

    Conclusions:

    • Warming climate conditions favor the emergence and spread of WNV strains with enhanced transmission capabilities.
    • Contemporary WNV strains exhibit greater adaptability and fitness at higher temperatures, increasing the risk of WNV transmission.
    • Understanding these climate-driven evolutionary dynamics is crucial for predicting and mitigating future WNV outbreaks.