Identifying Suitable Regions for Fritillaria unibracteata Cultivation Without Damage from the Pest Eospalax baileyi

The plateau zokor, Eospalax baileyi Thomas, is a destructive mammal pest affecting the cultivation of the medicinal plant Fritillaria unibracteata Hsiao et K.C. Hsia. Identifying regions exclusively suitable for the plant is an effective way to mitigate zokor-induced damage. In this study, the optimal MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were employed to predict suitable habitats for both species and identify pest-free regions for plant cultivation. Our results indicate that elevation and annual mean temperature are the critical factors influencing the plant distribution, while the pest distribution is determined by the elevation and precipitation of t warmest quarter. Under current and future climates, suitable habitats for the plant and the pest are concentrated in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, reaching their maximum under SSP245 and SSP126 in the 2090s, respectively. Current regions exclusively suitable for the plant without the pest are primarily found in eastern and central Tibet, reaching a maximum under SSP245 in the 2090s. Under climate change, the plant's suitable habitats, free from the pest damage, are predicted to be concentrated in eastern Tibet and northwestern Yunnan. Our findings provide practical guidance for F. unibracteata cultivation, as well as the monitoring and prevention of E. baileyi.