Global Species Diversity Patterns of Polypodiaceae Under Future Climate Changes

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Botany
• Climate Change Biology

Background:

• Global change significantly impacts species diversity patterns.
• Ferns, particularly Polypodiaceae, are sensitive indicators of climate shifts due to their temperature and humidity dependence.
• Polypodiaceae possess significant ecological, medicinal, and ornamental value, with extensive global distribution and rich species diversity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the current species diversity patterns of Polypodiaceae.
• To identify the key environmental factors influencing these diversity patterns.
• To predict future shifts in Polypodiaceae diversity under climate change scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Collected over 300,000 distribution data points for Polypodiaceae.
• Utilized Maxent for current and future potential species distribution modeling with 20 predictors.
• Employed multiple linear regression and random forest models to assess climate factor impacts.

Main Results:

• Polypodiaceae species diversity increases towards lower latitudes, with centers in tropical rainforests (Central America, Africa, South Asia, Oceania).
• Precipitation, not temperature, was the primary driver of current species diversity patterns.
• Future climate change is projected to cause an equatorward shift and aggregation of diversity in low-latitude, higher-altitude regions.

Conclusions:

• Precipitation during the warmest season is the most critical factor influencing Polypodiaceae diversity.
• Climate change will likely lead to significant alterations in the geographic distribution of fern diversity.
• Understanding these shifts is crucial for conservation efforts of this ecologically important plant family.