[Risk of death from cardiovascular diseases in relation to atrial fibrillation: the 15 year cohort study.]

The aim of this study was to assess the contribution of AF to the risk of death from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in a population-based cohort of 45-69 years over a 15-year follow-up. The participants (n=9 360) were examined in 2003-2005 and followed during 15 years (HAPIEE Project, Novosibirsk). The presence of AF at baseline was determined by resting ECG. The analysis included 9183 participants, of whom 142 had AF. Documented deaths were collected using CVD and mortality registries and proxy-information from serial examinations. A total of 1 789 all-cause deaths (1 171 CVD deaths) were identified. On the censoring date, the cumulative proportion of survivors among individuals with AF was 51% versus 86% among individuals without AF. The structure of fatal CVD is represented by 56% by chronic ischemic heart disease (I25), 9% by acute ischemic heart disease (I20-I24) and 18% by stroke (I60-I64). The 15-year risk of death from CVD in individuals with AF aged 45-69 was 3 times higher than in respondents with sinus rhythm, regardless of other factors. In men with AF compared with men with sinus rhythm, the risk of CVD death was 3 times higher, regardless of other risk factors. In women with AF, the risk of CVD death was 2 times higher compared with women without AF when adjusted for the main risk factors, but did not reach statistical significance when was adjusted for the main cardiometabolic diseases (DM, hypertension, CVD).