Research on the cultivated land use system resilience under a safe and just space framework

The cultivated land use system (CLUS) represents one of the most sensitive socio-ecological systems, influenced by both human activities and natural environmental disturbances. Investigating its resilience is crucial for ensuring food security and ecological safety, as well as for promoting social fairness and justice. This study analyzed the cultivated land use system resilience (CLUSR) in Hebei Province within the safe and just space framework. Our objective was to explore the spatiotemporal variations of CLUSR from 1980 to 2020, identify its different evolutionary stages, and elucidate the characteristics of resilience regulation zones. Additionally, based on the observed resilience in 2020, we simulated changes in resilience capacity under three decision-making risk scenarios. The results indicated that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the CLUSR in Hebei Province exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, undergoing three stages of "locked in the socio-ecological trap (1980-2000)", "reacting to the trap (2000-2010)", and "escaping the trap (2010-2020)". (2) Social justice resilience (SJR) generally displayed a pattern of being lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast, while ecological security resilience (ESR) remained relatively stable, with higher levels in the northwest and southeast and lower in other areas. High CLUSR areas are predominantly located in the southeast, whereas low areas are mainly found in the northern and western regions. (3) Resilience regulation zones can enhance resilience based on different regional characteristics, optimize resource allocation, and ensure efficient resource utilization. Core protection areas are primarily situated in the southeast of Hebei Province, with stable development areas located in the central and southern regions, while potential optimization areas are concentrated in the northeast. The northwest and southwest border regions primarily serve as elastic regulation areas, and remediation and restoration areas are mainly scattered in the central and southwestern parts. (4) Based on the cognitive preferences of decision-makers, three scenarios were depicted for CLUSR: the status quo type, development priority type, and cropland protection type. Among these, the cropland protection scenario exhibited an overall enhancement in CLUSR, yielding the most favorable results with a high resilient regional proportion of 68.82 %. This study comprehensively reflects the weaknesses in the utilization process, provides theoretical support for regional cultivated land use policies, and facilitates the sustainable utilization.