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Updated: May 11, 2026

07:47
Experimental Human Pneumococcal Carriage
Published on: February 15, 2013
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PCV13-Serotype Breakthrough Pneumococcal Disease in Infants Receiving High-Valency Conjugate Vaccines:
Kevin M Bakker1, Rachel J Oidtman1, Natalie Banniettis2
1Health Economic and Decision Sciences, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.
Infectious Diseases and Therapy
|March 19, 2025
Summary
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) models show PCV15 reduces breakthrough invasive pneumococcal disease (bIPD) in infants. PCV20 may increase bIPD cases, particularly from PCV7 serotypes with a 3+1 regimen.
Area of Science:
- Immunology
- Vaccinology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are evolving to cover more serotypes.
- Increased valency may reduce vaccine immunogenicity, potentially leading to breakthrough disease.
Purpose of the Study:
- To mathematically model the impact of PCV15 versus PCV20 on breakthrough invasive pneumococcal disease (bIPD) in French infants.
- To compare bIPD incidence across different serotype classes (PCV7, PCV13-nonPCV7-nonST3, ST3) under various vaccination regimens.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a mathematical model calibrated with IPD data from 2000-2019 in France.
- Predicted serotype-specific vaccine effectiveness for PCV15 and PCV20.
- Evaluated bIPD incidence in infants (0-12 months) comparing PCV15 and PCV20 (2+1 or 3+1 regimens) against 2019 IPD levels.
Main Results:
- PCV15 (2+1 regimen) resulted in fewer bIPD cases in infants compared to PCV20 (any regimen), particularly for ST3 serotypes.
- PCV15 reduced bIPD incidence across all evaluated serotype classes (-28% to -89%).
- PCV20 increased bIPD cases from PCV7 serotypes (+65% to +350%) and, in a 2+1 regimen, also increased PCV13-nonPCV7-nonST3 and ST3 cases.
Conclusions:
- PCV15 in a 2+1 regimen is projected to decrease bIPD incidence for all PCV13 serotypes in infants.
- PCV20 with a 2+1 regimen may significantly increase infant bIPD due to PCV13 serotypes.
- PCV20 with a 3+1 regimen might lead to a resurgence of bIPD caused by PCV7 serotypes in infants.
Keywords:
Breakthrough diseaseDynamic transmission modelInfantPneumococcal infectionsPneumococcal vaccinesMore Related Videos
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