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Balancing future urban development and carbon sequestration: A multi-scenario InVEST model analysis of China's urban
Jinxia Zhang1, Zhao Liu1, Zilong Guan2
1School of Water and Environment, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China; Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region of the Ministry of Education, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China; Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydrology and Water Security in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Ministry of Water Resources, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China.
Journal of Environmental Management
|March 20, 2025
Summary
China
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Ecosystem Studies
- Urban Planning
Background:
- Human land use significantly impacts Earth's systems and carbon storage.
- China's rapid industrialization and urbanization necessitate understanding future land use impacts.
- Assessing changes in carbon storage is crucial for effective carbon reduction policies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze land use change and its impact on carbon storage in China's urban clusters.
- To project these changes for 2020 and 2070 under various development scenarios.
- To explore the potential of urban green spaces in mitigating carbon emissions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the InVEST model for ecosystem services assessment.
- Analyzed land use data under different future development scenarios.
- Quantified carbon storage changes and the role of urban green spaces.
Main Results:
- Urban construction is projected to dominate, with limited ecological land.
- Cropland experiences significant land transfers, partly offset by policy-driven impervious surface conversion.
- Total carbon storage in urban clusters is expected to decrease, with losses exceeding sequestration.
Conclusions:
- Urban green spaces can offset a portion of urban carbon emissions (5.31%).
- Small and medium-sized cities are identified as key areas for reducing carbon pressure.
- The SSP1-26 scenario offers a balanced pathway for sustainable urban development in China.
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