Navigating early risks: Differential outcomes in middle childhood and the compensatory role of kindergarten...

It has been proposed that early risk constellations link differentially to later developmental outcomes. However, existing studies often use a limited set of risk indicators, excluding genetic and child-based risks. It is also unclear if the protective effects of potential moderators, such as kindergarten experiences, differ across risk groups.

Using data from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child (MoBa) cohort study (n = 7,478), we established latent early risk classes based on family, child, and genetic risk factors measured up to 3 years of age. The early risk classes were then compared on parent-rated internalizing and externalizing symptoms and academic performance at 8 years, as well as on registry outcomes reflecting child internalizing and externalizing diagnoses and national test scores at ages 11-14 years. Potential moderating effects of kindergarten protective factors (student-teacher closeness, social play behaviors and structured pre-academic activities) were examined.

We identified five classes: a "low risk" group (41.1%) performed best across most behavioral and academic outcomes. A "resource risk" group (32.1%) struggled academically at 8 and 11 years, while a "family psychological risk" group (11.7%) showed mental health difficulties at 8 years and the highest levels of internalizing diagnoses at 12-14 years. A "developmental risk" group (7.6%) exhibited more pronounced academic and behavioral difficulties at 8 years only, while a "preterm birth" (7.5%) group showed moderate risk across most outcomes. Close student-teacher relationships and social play behaviors, but not structured pre-academic activities, predicted improved outcomes at small effect sizes across the whole sample, with limited evidence for differential responses across groups.

Our risk groups were differentially linked to later outcomes, suggesting potential diverging developmental pathways. The investigated Kindergarten factors exerted protective effects across groups, indicating that they may universally benefit children independent of their risk backgrounds.