A novel approach to forecasting reproduction numbers of spatiotemporal stochastic epidemic spread using a PDE-based...

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for improved epidemic spread forecasting, a critical precursor for developing optimal control measures for spread mitigation. Well-recognized shortcomings in computing basic and effective reproduction numbers ( $$ , $$ )-fundamental metrics for forecasting-underscore the need for new methods for estimating them from available data. We present a novel computational framework for estimating reproduction numbers from empirical spread data. The framework is derived from a mechanistic, spatiotemporal, Partial Differential Equation (PDE) model of epidemic spread utilizing mathematical results from PDE epidemic models. Forecasts of spatiotemporal effective reproduction number $$ using the framework are found to be in excellent agreement with COVID-19 spread trends for Hamilton County, Ohio, USA, for three distinct periods. Furthermore, the forecasts are shown to align with corresponding reproduction numbers computed independently using the Wallinga-Teunis and Cori retrospective methods used in epidemiology. In summary, the results establish the validity of the framework and indicate applicability to future epidemics-especially for regions such as counties and for timeframes extending in weeks-even during dynamic phases when obtainable real-time infection spread data will likely be sparse.