Spatiotemporal analysis of wildfires in Alberta, Canada over the past sixty years: Increased wildfire frequency by...

Wildfires are a major socio-ecological issue in Alberta. The region's extensive forests and grasslands provide abundant natural fuel. Since the onset of the 21st century, climate change and human activities have led to an increase in wildfire frequency. While provious studies have focused on specific events and short-term periods, they often lack a comprehensive analysis of long-term trends and fail to integrate environmental and human factors. This study addresses these gaps by providing a detailed analysis of wildfire dynamics in Alberta from 1961 to 2020, utilizing historical datasets to examine trends in frequency and burned areas. Unlike prior research, this study employs advanced spatial analysis methods, including spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis, and incorporates 12 variables related to climate, human activities, and topography into a geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model. The results reveal a significant increase in wildfire frequency since the 21st century, with human-caused fires clustering in specific areas, while lightning-caused fires are more dispersed. The GWLR model highlights the spatial variability of influencing factors, with population density emerging as the most significant driver of burned areas, underscoring the critical role of human activities. This research innovates by integrating multiple variables, extending the time frame, and emphasizing the interplay of human, climatic, and topographic factors. The findings provide valuable insights for optimizing wildfire prevention strategies and informing spatial planning policies to mitigate future risks.