Habitat Mapping of Bos gaurus in Parsa National Park, Nepal: Ensemble Modeling Approach

Bos gaurus, a globally vulnerable and protected priority species in Nepal, has experienced habitat loss and fragmentation, poaching, and diseases. Consequently, their population is isolated significantly in Parsa National Park and Chitwan National Park in Nepal. However, their distribution even in these protected areas is limited to topographical features. This study focuses on habitat suitability modeling of B. gaurus in Parsa National Park (PNP) utilizing the ensemble modeling approach to identify key ecogeographical and climatic variables influencing B. gaurus suitable habitat and to estimate suitability in and around Parsa National Park, Nepal. After the multicollinearity test, potential ecogeographical variables were integrated with ground presence points for ensemble modeling. The model revealed that distance from waterholes and settlements, slope, and bioclimatic variables highly influenced highly in B. gaurus's habitat suitability. The model found only 31.29% (285.55 km²) area as a suitable area for B. gaurus distribution in and around PNP. The eastern part of the park (newly extended area around Halkhoriya Lake) and the south-central section of park show the suitable habitat for B. gaurus. However, wildlife-friendly infrastructure in the East-West Highway (that fragments the park) within park can facilitate B. gaurus's movement among these crucial habitat patches. Future habitat projections under the SSP1-2.6 climate scenario indicate a gradual reduction in suitable habitat, indicating a marginal impact of the climate change scenario on gaur habitat in the area. These changes highlight the limited vulnerability of B. gaurus to climate change and the risk of habitat fragmentation, potentially leading to population declines. However, conservation strategies including maintaining water sources, restoring degraded habitats, particularly in the northern section of the park, and enhancing connectivity through wildlife corridors could ensure long-term survival.