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Exploratory analysis of COVID-19 propagation using logistic model.
Xing Zhang1, Chunhe Da1,2,3, Wenjuan Ye1,3
1First Clinical Medical College, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu, China.
Peerj
|March 24, 2025
Summary
This study analyzed COVID-19 spread in 16 countries using the Logistic model. Early outbreaks correlated with higher mortality, while later ones showed lower rates, informing future pandemic strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- Pandemics, like the COVID-19 outbreak, present substantial global health and economic challenges.
- The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) rapidly became a worldwide crisis due to its high transmissibility and virulence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze COVID-19 transmission patterns in 16 countries using the Logistic model.
- To identify outbreak patterns and assess the impact of timing and policy on pandemic spread and mortality.
Main Methods:
- Utilized World Health Organization (WHO) data from 2020-2023 for 16 countries with over 10 million infections.
- Applied the Logistic model to analyze epidemic spread dynamics and parameter changes over time.
Main Results:
- Global infections surpassed 772 million with over 7 million deaths by December 31, 2023.
- Early outbreak countries (e.g., USA, Brazil) generally experienced higher mortality rates than later outbreak countries (e.g., China, Japan).
- Logistic model parameter k indicated policy effectiveness varied, with Australia, Vietnam, and China showing significant adjustments.
Conclusions:
- Pandemic outbreak timing significantly influences mortality rates.
- The Logistic model provides insights into policy effectiveness and epidemic control.
- Findings support developing targeted public health strategies for future pandemic preparedness.
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