Assessment of economic burden of lumpy skin disease in India using stochastic modeling

This study assessed the farm-level economic loss due to LSD in India and at disaggregate (state) level by collecting data from 2351 cattle farms covering seven states. Data were analyed using descriptive statistics and stochastic modeling with Monte Carlo simulations. Gujarat state reported the highest milk loss, with a median reduction of 74, 90, 60, 45, 15, 15, and 8 L per animal in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Assam, and Odisha, respectively. Crossbred cattle experienced more milk loss per animal, ranging from USD 0.0 to 237.8. The median mortality loss per animal varied between USD 12.2 and 1,084. The substantial national loss was due to decreased milk production, followed by the loss of draught power, treatment cost, and vector management cost. Stochastic modelling estimated economic loss due to LSD in cattle in India was USD 2440.29 million (90% CI 2162.55-2716.15) / (INR 202,544.07 million (90% 179,491.65-2,225,440.45) during 2022 & 2023 with a highest loss of USD 314.18 million (90% CI 279.10-349.34)) in Rajasthan state.