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Population attributable risk of a competing-risk model for breast cancer and non-breast cancer death among women ≥ 65 years

  • 0Division of General Medicine and Primary Care, Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 1309 Beacon, Office 219, Brookline, Boston, MA, USA. mschonbe@bidmc.harvard.edu.
Breast Cancer Research and Treatment +

|

March 25, 2025

|

March 25, 2025

View abstract on PubMed

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

A new model accurately predicts 10-year breast cancer risk and non-breast cancer death in women 65 and older. This tool helps inform mammography screening decisions and identifies modifiable risk factors like high BMI for intervention.

Area Of Science

  • Epidemiology
  • Geriatric Medicine
  • Oncology

Background

  • Mammography screening decisions for older women require accurate risk assessment for breast cancer and competing non-breast cancer mortality.
  • Previous work developed a Fine-Gray competing-risk regression model to estimate these risks.

Purpose Of The Study

  • To quantify the proportion of incident breast cancer and non-breast cancer death risk explained by the previously developed model in women aged 65 years and older.
  • To identify specific risk factors contributing to breast cancer risk in this demographic.

Main Methods

  • Utilized data from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and the Women's Health Initiative-Extension Study (WHI-ES) including women aged 65 years and older.
  • Calculated population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) for incident breast cancer and non-breast cancer death using the full model and risk-factor-specific components.

Main Results

  • The model explained a substantial proportion of breast cancer incidence (54.8%-58.8%) and non-breast cancer death (86.2%-94.2%) in both cohorts.
  • Modifiable risk factors accounted for approximately one-third of breast cancer risk, with a body mass index (BMI) ≥30 contributing significantly (PAR% 6.5%-12.2%).

Conclusions

  • The competing-risk model effectively explains the majority of breast cancers and non-breast cancer deaths in women aged 65 and older.
  • Identified elevated BMI as a key modifiable risk factor, suggesting potential targets for reducing breast cancer burden in older women.

Keywords:

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