Seroconversion Model for a Better Understanding of Hantavirus Transmission in Rodents

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Epidemiology
• Zoology

Background:

• Hantavirus infection in rodents is linked to human risk.
• Current methods for studying hantavirus dynamics offer limited insight into transmission timing and mechanisms.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a novel strategy combining capture-mark-recapture and longitudinal serological data.
• To determine the infection time window for rodents and correlate it with individual features and weather conditions.
• To assess hantavirus transmission dynamics in sigmodontine rodents in Argentina.

Main Methods:

• Developed a seroconversion model integrating capture-mark-recapture and longitudinal serological data.
• Applied the model to field data from Akodon azarae and Oligoryzomys flavescens in Argentina (May 2014 - January 2016).
• Analyzed daily time series data to correlate seroconversion rates with individual characteristics and weather patterns.

Main Results:

• Identified distinct weather conditions associated with high seroconversion rates for each rodent species.
• Observed higher infection rates in male rodents, suggesting a link between transmission and mating behavior.
• Found that the strongest effects on seroconversion occurred during the rodent reproductive period.

Conclusions:

• Hantavirus transmission dynamics are influenced by specific weather conditions and rodent behavior, including mating and nesting habits.
• The findings provide a more nuanced understanding of hantavirus transmission than traditional seroprevalence studies.
• This approach enhances the assessment and prediction of human hantavirus pulmonary syndrome risk.