[Prediction of pulmonary hypertension from simple, noninvasive parameters using discriminant analysis]

Based on a large number of males with chronic obstructive bronchitis, the usefulness of discriminant analysis for prediction of pulmonary hypertension has been investigated. Two groups were formed: 227 men with overt pulmonary hypertension; 145 patients without pulmonary hypertension Applying the discriminant analysis, 9 variables were selected step by step; 6 out of them were measurably contributing to the discrimination of both groups. As relevant turned out diameter of the right descending pulmonary artery, FVC% predicted, FEV1% FVC, pa2, systolic blood pressure, and RV% TLC. In a procedure of reclassification, based upon the calculated discriminant functions, 82,6% of the cases were correctly classified (sensitivity 80,6%, specificity 86,2%). A pocket calculator programme following the method by Läuter gave identical results. The application of the discriminant function to a new group of 147 unselected men with chronic obstructive bronchitis corroborated the foregoing results. 79,1% of all patients with overt or latent pulmonary hyper-tension were detected. For overt hypertension the sensitivity was 88,4%, for latent hypertension 62,5%. Using this method, decision-making regarding heart catheterism can be improved. It must be stressed, however, that this discriminant function is not valid for women and for other diagnosis groups in males.