Histogram analysis of multiple mathematical diffusion-weighted imaging models for preoperative prediction of Ki-67...

To explore whether a combination of clinico-radiological factors and histogram parameters based on monoexponential, biexponential, and stretched exponential models derived from the whole-tumor volume on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) could predict Ki-67 expression in hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).

Histogram parameters based on whole-tumor volumes were derived from monoexponential model, biexponential model, and stretched exponential model. Histogram parameters were compared between HCCs with high and low Ki-67 expression. Multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess the ability to predict Ki-67 expression (expression index ≤ 20% vs. >20%).

In the training and test set, the 5th percentile of distributed diffusion coefficient (DDC) yielded the area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.816 (95% CI 0.713 to 0.894) and 0.867 (95% CI 0.655 to 0.972), respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, skewness of perfusion fraction(f), and 5th percentile of DDC were independent predictors of high Ki-67 expression in HCCs. In the training and test sets, the AUC of the combined model for predicting high Ki-67 expression in HCCs were 0.902 (95% CI 0.814 to 0.957) and 0.908 (95% CI 0.707 to 0.989), respectively.

Histogram parameters of multiple mathematical DWI models can be useful for predicting high Ki-67 expression in HCCs, and our combined model based on AFP level, skewness of f, and 5th percentile of DDC may be an effective approach for predicting Ki-67 expression in HCCs.