Does Calm Always Follow the Storm? A Comprehensive Temporal Analysis of Emergency Department Visits in Northern Italy...

Emergency department (ED) crowding has become a pressing global concern exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. No studies have addressed this issue in Europe during the post-pandemic period so far. This study examined ED visit volumes, patient acuity, hospital admission rates, emergency vehicle arrivals, and crowding metrics before, during, and after the pandemic.

We conducted a retrospective descriptive study including data on all ED visits in the Lombardy Region of Italy from January 2019 to December 2023. Furthermore, an inferential statistical analysis was performed to compare ED trends between 2019 and 2023.

During the analyzed period, there were 15,515,128 visits across all Lombardy EDs. ED visits dropped from 3,514,426 in 2019 to 2,380,005 in 2020, then rebounded to 3,464,756 in 2023. In 2019, triage code distribution was 9.9% white, 68.7% green, 19.0% yellow, and 1.9% red. During the pandemic, the proportion of white and green codes decreased. By 2023, these comprised 80.7% of the total. The percentage of admitted patients was 11.9% in 2019, rose to 16.2% in 2020, and returned to 11.4% in 2023. The median ED length of stay (EDLOS) for admitted patients in 2023 was 5.2 h (IQR [2.1-17.4]), compared to 3.8 h (IQR [1.6-8.6]) in 2019 (p-value < 0.01). The median EDLOS for discharged patients in 2023 was 2.7 h (IQR [1.4-4.9]), compared to 2.4 h (IQR [1.3-4.4]) in 2019 (p-value < 0.01). The rate of patients leaving before completing treatment was 5.0% in 2019 and peaked at 6.8% in 2023 (p-value < 0.01).

In 2023, ED visits in Lombardy increased, compared to the pandemic period, but remained below 2019 levels. The proportion of high-acuity codes and hospital admissions was slightly lower than in 2019. However, ED crowding metrics worsened. The high levels of lower-acuity visits and the deterioration in crowding metrics highlight systemic challenges within the healthcare system.