Extreme cold reduces seedling establishment, but native species appear more susceptible than non-native species

Extreme-cold events are increasingly recognized as one of the most damaging aspects of climate change in northern temperate ecosystems. However, little data exists describing how native and non-native species may respond to these extreme events, especially as seeds. We used a greenhouse experiment to test how extreme cold reduces seedling establishment in seven woody species common to eastern North America. We hypothesized that the effects of extreme cold depend on provenance (native vs. non-native) and chilling period.

Following chilling periods of 80, 100, or 120 days, seeds experienced a false-spring with temperatures at 15°C for one week; half of the seeds in each dormancy treatment group experienced a two-day extreme-cold event (-13.9°C) while the rest returned to mild winter temperatures (4°C).

Extreme-cold events universally decreased seedling establishment, but non-native species had four times greater survival in the extreme-cold treatment (mean ± s.e.: 0.108 ± 0.024) compared to native species (0.024 ± 0.018). Furthermore, native seeds were increasingly susceptible to extreme-cold damage following a 120-day chilling period, whereas non-native seeds were able to resist extreme cold equally following all chilling periods.

These results suggest that in eastern North America, cold resistance could be a trait facilitating the success of non-native species. The introduction of non-native species may synergize with climate change to alter community composition, which could have important consequences for forest biodiversity in the Anthropocene.