Differential effects of donor factors on post-transplant survival in lung transplantation

Predicting post-transplant (PT) survival in lung allocation remains an elusive goal. We analyzed the impact of donor factors on PT survival and how these relationships vary among transplant recipients.

We studied primary bilateral lung transplant recipients (n = 7,609) from the US Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (19 February 2015-1 February 2020). Main and interaction effects were evaluated and adjusted across candidate age, sex, and diagnosis. Models predicting PT survival were compared to the PT Composite Allocation Score model (PT-CAS): (1) Cox regression donor multivariable model (COX), (2) COX + PT-CAS, (3) random forest model (RF), and (4) RF + PT-CAS. Model discrimination and calibration measures were compared.

Interactions between donor and recipient factors emerged by age: lower survival for donation after circulatory death organs for recipients aged 55 to 69 years, donor smoking for recipients aged 30 to 54 and 70+, Hispanic donor for recipients <30, non-Hispanic Black donor for recipients aged 30+; sex: cytomegalovirus mismatch for males; diagnosis: higher donor recipient weight ratio for diagnosis group C (e.g., cystic fibrosis), donor diabetes for diagnosis group D (e.g., idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis). COX and RF models performed similarly to PT-CAS; however, the combined COX + PT-CAS model had improved discrimination (1-year area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUC] PT-CAS 0.609 vs 1-year AUC COX + PT-CAS 0.626) and improved calibration across a broader range of predicted risk.

The influence of donor factors on recipient PT survival differed by age, sex, and diagnosis. The addition of donor factors to existing models predicting PT survival led to only modest improvement in prediction accuracy. Future efforts may focus on optimizing matching strategies to improve donor utilization.