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Why do autocracies enfranchise their citizens abroad? A large-N event history analysis, 1990-2010
Nicolas Fliess1, Ali Kiani2, Eva Østergaard-Nielsen3
1Department of Socio-Cultural Diversity, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Religious and Ethnic Diversity, Goettingen, Germany.
Autocratic regimes grant diaspora voting rights as a survival tactic to repress and legitimize their rule. This strategy is influenced by diaspora characteristics and the regime
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Comparative Politics
- International Relations
Background:
- Authoritarian regimes often employ elections as a survival strategy.
- Granting diaspora voting rights is a puzzling tactic, as it's hard to control and can empower critics abroad.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the reasons behind autocracies extending voting rights to their diaspora.
- To analyze how diaspora suffrage serves autocratic regimes' goals of repression, co-optation, and legitimacy.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing a cross-national dataset of autocratic regimes.
- Employing a discrete-time event history model to analyze the decision to enfranchise diasporas.
Main Results:
- Autocratic regimes are less likely to grant voting rights to diasporas residing in democracies or composed of refugees.
- Successful coups increase the probability of adopting diaspora suffrage.
- Diaspora suffrage is used for domestic and international legitimization, and for repressing/co-opting citizens abroad.
Conclusions:
- External voting rights are a strategic tool for autocracies to manage their internationally mobile populations.
- The decision to enfranchise diasporas is contingent on regime type, diaspora characteristics, and post-transition needs.
- Studying diaspora suffrage offers insights into why authoritarian states adopt democratic institutions.
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