Quantitative Analysis of Trade Position Shifts of China and the United States in the Indian Ocean Rim Trade Networks...

The Indian Ocean Rim (IOR) is a crucial hub for global commerce, possessing key maritime corridors and competitive markets for China and the United States. Assessing the evolving positions of China and the United States in regional trade provides critical insights into their economic competition. This study quantitatively investigated their changing positions in the IOR trade networks from 1992 to 2020 through an interdisciplinary approach combining the Fisher optimal segmentation, chord-diagram visualization, and five weighted centrality indicators, including two advanced metrics derived from physical current flow theory. The results reveal a significant shift in their trade positions in the IOR trade networks across four phases (1992-2002, 2003-2008, 2009-2014, and 2015-2020); in particular, the United States occupied a dominant position in the IOR trade networks until 2008, after which China rose to the central trading position, as reflected in its top ranking across four weighted indicators (excluding weighted authority centrality). In machinery and transport equipment (SITC7), China also surpassed the United States in 2008 and further consolidated its supremacy, driven by its strong manufacturing capabilities and the growing demand from the IOR countries. Meanwhile, the United States experienced a noticeable decline but maintained substantial influence as a key importer. This research develops a quantitative framework that integrates the temporal segmentation with weighted centrality indicators to provide insights into the dynamics and structural changes of trade networks across sectors and regions.