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Deep-sea mining and its risks for social-ecological systems: Insights from simulation-based analyses.

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Deep-sea mining (DSM) poses significant environmental, social, and economic risks. Circular economy solutions offer a viable alternative, mitigating these potential harms.

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Area of Science:

  • Marine Biology
  • Environmental Science
  • Economics
  • Social Science

Background:

  • Deep-sea mining (DSM) is a contentious issue with potential benefits and drawbacks.
  • Assessing the multifaceted risks of DSM is crucial for informed decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the environmental, economic, and social risks associated with deep-sea mining (DSM).
  • To compare scenarios with and without DSM, emphasizing the risks of over-reliance on DSM.
  • To identify key risk indicators and develop a comprehensive assessment framework.

Main Methods:

  • Literature review and expert interviews were conducted.
  • Qualitative data and fuzzy cognitive mapping were applied for analysis.
  • Risk indicators were assessed across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Main Results:

  • Environmental factors were found to be the most influential risk drivers (centrality: 1.46).
  • The 'With DSM' scenario indicated increased risks across all dimensions, with environmental factors like 'coastal state vulnerability' rising by 13%.
  • Social and economic risks also escalated, with increases of 8-11% and 11% respectively.

Conclusions:

  • The substantial risks of deep-sea mining (DSM) to marine ecosystems outweigh its potential benefits.
  • Circular economy solutions present a sustainable alternative for resource acquisition.
  • Policy should incentivize circular practices and resource recovery to mitigate associated risks.