Trends and projections of Non-Hodgkin lymphoma burden (1990-2040): a global burden of disease 2021 analysis

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is a common type of lymphoma. These vary geographically and within specific areas. A comprehensive and precise assessment of the global burden of NHL is important for the forward-looking planning and implementation of health policies.

This study used data from the 2021 Global Disease Burden (GBD) study. We examined trends in disease burden in non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients using indicators including the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted years of life (DALY), as well as the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). Temporal trends in NHL risk factors from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed. Joinpoint regression was used to determine the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the age-standardized rate. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the age-standardized mortality and DALY rates by 2040.

In 2021, the NHL's global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 7.1 per 100,000 people. From 1999 to 2021, there was a downward trend in ASMR and ASDR of NHL (AAPC = -0.6 and -0.8, respectively), but ASIR and ASPR of NHL showed an upward trend (AAPC = 0.3 and 1.2, respectively). According to the socio-demographic index (SDI), the ASIP and ASPR of NHL were higher in regions and countries with higher SDI. The study also found an increase in ASMR and ASDR associated with high body mass index (BMI) in NHL. In addition, it is predicted that the global ASIR and ASPR will continue to show a slow upward trend in the next 2040, whereas ASMR and ASDR will gradually decline.

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) remains a formidable public health challenge; however, different regions and socioeconomic statuses have different trends. A more aggressive, individualized intervention strategy is needed based on dynamic changes. Simultaneously, close international collaboration is essential to advance improvements in NHL management, including strengthening diagnostic and treatment strategies, strengthening healthcare infrastructure, expanding access to high-quality healthcare services, and strengthening public health education.