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Optimizing Face Validity and Clinical Relevance of a Mathematical Population Cancer Epidemiology Model Using a Novel
Louise Davies1,2, Sara Fernandes-Taylor3, Natalia Arroyo4
1Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, The VA Outcomes Group, White River Junction, VT, USA.
Summary
This study developed a cancer simulation model for papillary thyroid cancer (PATCAM) by incorporating expert and patient input. This approach enhanced the model's accuracy and clinical relevance for policy decisions.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Health Services Research
- Computational Biology
Background:
- Cancer simulation models are valuable for research and policy when prospective data is limited.
- Challenges include incorporating unmeasurable inputs and ensuring clinical relevance and face validity.
- Developing the Papillary Thyroid CArcinoma Microsimulation model (PATCAM) required addressing these validity challenges.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically incorporate formal advisory input into the development of a cancer microsimulation model.
- To enhance the face validity and clinical relevance of the PATCAM model.
- To mitigate challenges associated with unmeasurable inputs in cancer modeling.
Main Methods:
- Employed a participatory action research approach with focus group techniques and bidirectional learning.
- Established a formal, standing advisory group with diverse representation (medical, patient, payor).
- Utilized the advisory group to inform critical modeling assumptions regarding diagnosis, treatment, and epidemiology.
Main Results:
- The advisory group provided essential input on nodule size, biopsy trends, specialty variations, cancer prevalence, tumor regression, and sex/age-specific epidemiology.
- Incorporating advisory input increased the face validity and transparency of the PATCAM model.
- Advisory group feedback identified future research questions and improved dissemination strategies.
Conclusions:
- The participatory modeling approach using a standing advisory group successfully enhanced the validity and relevance of the papillary thyroid cancer microsimulation model.
- This method strengthens cancer models by rigorously vetting assumptions with subject matter experts.
- The approach promotes transparency, aids dissemination, and informs future research for maximum impact on clinical decisions and policy.
Keywords:
advisory groupcancer modelingmicrosimulationoverdiagnosisparticipatory action researchthyroid cancerMore Related Videos
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