Emotions, trust, and expectations: Comparing determinants of public support for managed realignment across cases

Managed realignment (MR) involves repositioning coastal or river flood defenses to re-establish tidal flooding and restore intertidal ecosystems in reclaimed areas. The restoration of intertidal ecosystems contributes to flood risk management and achieving nature conservation objectives. However, MR often faces resistance from local communities, potentially undermining its implementation. Previous qualitative studies have discussed the role of socio-psychological constructs in shaping public attitudes toward MR, but quantitative empirical assessments grounded in socio-psychological theory are scarce. In addition, the absence of comparative research across multiple cases limits the potential for generalization, making it difficult to apply findings to other contexts and populations. This study contributes to filling these research gaps by examining socio-psychological constructs that shape public support for MR in three case study areas in the Netherlands. We administered questionnaires among households (N = 324) and used multivariate and regression models to analyze the collected data. Results across the case studies point to three socio-psychological constructs that consistently explain public support for MR, including (i) trust in institutions, (ii) outcome expectancies and (iii) emotions. These constructs are intercorrelated, suggesting that they influence each other when collectively shaping support for MR. Strategies to enhance public support could be more effective when they address these constructs in an integrated manner. Moving forward, it is important to explore how public engagement and communication around MR policies could be tailored to leverage positive emotions better and how the design of MR can be aligned with location-specific priorities.