Predictive models for posttransplant diabetes mellitus in kidney transplant recipients using machine learning and...

Posttransplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) complicates kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) in morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to predict PTDM risk in KTRs using machine learning and deep learning models.

Data were obtained from the Korea Organ Transplantation Registry, a nationwide cohort study of KTRs. Four machine learning algorithms, including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), CatBoost, light gradient boosting machine and logistic regression, and deep learning were implemented on 41 pretransplant and 31 posttransplant variables to predict PTDM. Model performance was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score.

Among 3,213 KTRs, 497 patients (15.5%) developed PTDM within 1 year. The PTDM group had higher age, body mass index (BMI), triglyceride level, and prevalence of hypertension and cardiovascular disease, and lower total cholesterol level at baseline than the No-PTDM group. The XGBoost model showed the highest AUC (0.738) and F1 score (0.42), and modest accuracy (0.86), while the CatBoost model exhibited the highest accuracy (0.87) and precision (0.79). Feature importance in XGBoost was highest for recipient age, followed by baseline BMI, triglyceride level at posttransplant 6 months, baseline glycated hemoglobin and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, white blood cell (WBC) count and serum uric acid level at 6 months, baseline WBC count, and tacrolimus trough level at discharge.

The XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance for predicting PTDM within 1 year, offering an accurate tool for early identification and personalized care of high-risk KTRs for PTDM.