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Fungicide Selection, Disease Risk, and Grower Switching Behavior.

Jae Young Hwang1, Sharmodeep Bhattacharyya2, Shirshendu Chatterjee3

  • 1U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Forage Seed and Cereal Research Unit, Corvallis, OR 97331, U.S.A.

Plant Disease
|April 3, 2025
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Hop growers often switch from non-synthetic to synthetic fungicides based on disease incidence and application timing. Understanding these fungicide switching behaviors is key for effective disease management and reducing synthetic inputs.

Keywords:
epidemiologyfungihops

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Plant Pathology
  • Pest Management

Background:

  • Effective disease management in hop cultivation necessitates strategic decisions regarding pesticide application, including type, frequency, and timing.
  • Hop powdery mildew (Podosphaera macularis) poses a significant challenge, requiring growers to adapt their fungicide strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop predictive models for estimating hop grower switching behavior between non-synthetic, synthetic, or mixed fungicide applications.
  • To identify key factors influencing growers' decisions to switch fungicide types for managing hop powdery mildew.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized binary and multinomial logistic regression models to analyze fungicide switching patterns.
  • Employed a random forest classification algorithm to determine the importance of various predictive variables.
  • Analyzed grower application data in relation to disease incidence and seasonal timing.

Main Results:

  • Growers predominantly used non-synthetic fungicides (61.5%), with significant switching to synthetic (21.5%) or mixed (17.0%) applications.
  • Switching likelihood was associated with the timing of the first non-synthetic application and increased with disease incidence.
  • Key predictors of switching behavior included time of year, grower effects, first application date, disease incidence, pruning, and cultivar susceptibility.

Conclusions:

  • Hop growers transition to more potent synthetic fungicides or mixtures during critical crop susceptibility periods and elevated disease pressure.
  • Reducing synthetic fungicide use is intrinsically linked to effective disease risk mitigation strategies.
  • Understanding grower decision-making processes is crucial for optimizing integrated pest management programs in hop production.