Evolutionary Lability of Sexual Selection and Its Implications for Speciation and Macroevolution

AbstractSexual selection is widely hypothesized to facilitate speciation and phenotypic evolution, but evidence from comparative studies has been mixed. Many previous studies have relied on proxy variables to quantify the intensity of sexual selection, raising the possibility that inconclusive results may reflect, in part, the imperfect measurement of this evolutionary process. Here, we test the relationship between phylogenetic speciation rates and indices of the opportunity for sexual selection drawn from populations of 82 vertebrate taxa. These indices provide a much more direct assessment of sexual selection intensity than proxy traits and allow straightforward comparisons among distantly related clades. We find no correlation between the opportunity for sexual selection and speciation rate, and this result is consistent across many complementary analyses. In addition, widely used proxy variables-sexual dimorphism and dichromatism-are not correlated with the indices employed here. Moreover, we find that the opportunity for sexual selection has low phylogenetic signal and that intraspecific variability in selection indices for many species approaches the range of variation observed across all vertebrates as a whole. Our results potentially reconcile a major paradox in speciation biology at the interface between microevolution and macroevolution: sexual selection can be important for speciation, yet the evolutionary lability of the process over deeper timescales restricts its impact on broad-scale patterns of biodiversity.