An income-tailored energy efficiency rebate policy: Multi-dimensional benefit evaluation approach for upgrading...

A framework for evaluating the economic, environmental, and health benefits of upgrading residential heating furnaces in Ontario, Canada, is presented focusing on income-based disparities across seven groups. Energy efficiency programs often overlook income-based differences, limiting access to rebates. Key objectives include assessing benefits for consumers and society, and designing an income-tailored rebate policy. Benefits assessed include reductions in natural gas consumption, greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂, methane, nitrous oxide), primary and secondary particulate matter (PM_2.5) contaminants, and the prevention of premature mortality. The methods involve estimating energy consumption reductions and accounting for efficiency declines over time, emission factors, global warming potentials, intake fraction, concentration-response function, and a baseline health endpoint for environmental and health impact assessments. Natural gas price modeling, carbon taxes, and the value of statistical life are used for monetary benefit calculations. Findings reveal significant differences in per-household energy-saving benefits among income groups. Gas consumption reductions range from 7015 (lowest-income) to 19,416 m³ (highest-income), greenhouse gas reductions vary from 13.32 to 36.86 tons of CO₂e, and PM_2.5 reductions range from 0.85 to 2.36 kg (primary) and 8.27 to 22.90 kg (secondary). Savings (consumer and societal) range from $2669 to $7388 CAD. Collectively, 10 to 55 premature deaths are avoided. These disparities suggest that uniform rebate policies may not equitably support all income groups. An income-based tax rebate structure is recommended allocating 71.26% of the furnace price to the lowest-income group and 20.62% to the highest-income group, utilizing income tax data for eligibility to enhance upgrade uptake and optimize rebate distribution.