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Modelling with SPEED: a Stochastic Predictor of Early Epidemic Detection.

Kathryn H Bowers1, Daniela De Angelis2, Paul J Birrell2

  • 1MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

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|April 6, 2025
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Summary

The new Stochastic Predictor of Early Epidemic Detection (SPEED) model enhances infectious disease surveillance by simulating early outbreaks. It refines reproduction number estimates and assesses public health response effectiveness for better epidemic preparedness.

Keywords:
Bayesian inferenceEmerging infectious diseasesEpidemicsIndividual-level modellingNovel pathogen detectionStochastic modelling

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Emerging infectious disease outbreaks are increasing, requiring advanced predictive tools for public health.
  • Existing models often lack the granularity to capture early-stage stochastic transmission dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and validate the Stochastic Predictor of Early Epidemic Detection (SPEED) model for early epidemic detection and analysis.
  • To utilize SPEED for refining reproduction number estimates and simulating outbreak scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Adaptation of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model using a Gillespie-like algorithm for stochastic simulation.
  • Incorporation of individual-level detection probabilities and dynamic adjustment to public health interventions.
  • Application of Bayesian inference for estimating the reproduction number.

Main Results:

  • The SPEED model effectively refines reproduction number estimates using prior distributions.
  • Simulations demonstrate the utility of second case detection timing in ruling out high reproduction numbers.
  • Model application to a case of influenza A(H1N2)v showcases its real-world applicability.

Conclusions:

  • The SPEED model provides a robust framework for statistical inference and scenario simulation in early epidemic detection.
  • It aids in evaluating the impact of public health responses on initial outbreak spread.
  • SPEED enhances preparedness for emerging infectious diseases through improved predictive capabilities.