Risk factors for coronary heart disease in rural Hungary

This is a ten-year study of a cohort of 1088 Hungarian men aged 40-59 at entry, with a 99% baseline response rate and complete ascertainment of cases and follow-up. The methods were state of the art for the period the survey was performed, with quality control for standard procedure and training. Zero, five- and ten-year examinations were carried out and standard risk factors measured and analysed in relation to the ten-year experience, ie, age, blood cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking, body mass, vital capacity, and skinfolds. Risk factor levels were high relative to the Mediterranean and Oriental populations in the Seven Countries Study. The five-year coronary heart disease rates were intermediate between the low rates in Yugoslavia and Greece and high rates in Finland. Ten-year events were significantly and linearly related to quintile values of serum cholesterol and of 3, 4, 6, and 9 risk factors in the Walker-Duncan logistic model. Discrimination was not substantially improved beyond three factors apart from age. The maximal prediction concentrated 62% of events in the upper 20% of multifactor risk, and up to 80% in the upper 40% of risk. The authors conclude, from this separate but comparable study to the Seven Countries Study, that the results are not greatly different from that study or from the US Pooling Project. Unique features of the study, and its results, are the eastern European population, the absence of a strong CHD relationship with smoking, and the strong independent relationship with body mass.