Fertility patterns and influencing factors in Ethiopia

Fertility level, indicating the number of births per woman of reproductive age, plays a pivotal role in population dynamics. In Ethiopia, grappling with a substantial population growth rate poses a significant hurdle in its journey toward attaining middle-income status. This study aims to pinpoint the key determinants influencing fertility levels in the country. Data from the 2019 mini Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey were utilized, encompassing a sample of 8,885 reproductive women selected through stratified random sampling. Various statistical models, including Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial, were employed for analysis. Among these, the Zero-Inflated Poisson model emerged as the most suitable for the dataset. The average fertility level among women was 2.59 births, with a variance of 7.852. Findings revealed several significant determinants of fertility levels in Ethiopia. Notably, residing in rural areas, attaining primary, secondary, or higher education, lack of utilization of modern family planning methods, limited knowledge about family planning, and geographic location, such as living in the Afar, Gambella, Addis Ababa, or Dire Dawa regions, were identified as influential factors. Furthermore, being a female household head, experiencing child deaths, widowhood, and divorced were also found to impact fertility rates. The study underscores the importance of addressing these determinants to curb high fertility rates. Recommendations include prioritizing initiatives to enhance women's education levels, ensuring widespread access to family planning services, and bolstering awareness regarding family planning methods. By implementing these measures, strides can be made towards stabilizing fertility rates in Ethiopia and promoting sustainable demographic growth.