Census tract predictors of physical, psychological, and social functioning for needs assessment

The advantages of census data-based needs assessment cannot be fully realized in the absence of demonstrated relationships between area characteristics and aggregate individual service need. This study sought to ascertain these relationships by using tract characteristics from the 1980 census to predict tract aggregate levels of individually measured social, physical, and psychological functioning. A census tract stratified sample of 3,465 permanent households in eastern Long Island, New York was used for the study. In each household, a randomly selected adult was surveyed regarding physical functioning, depressed mood, and social isolation. Stepwise multiple regression was used to determine which census variables best predicted the tract distributions of each of the functioning measures. Census variables explained from 23 to 30 percent of the variance in tract need level. Study findings have immediate utility for efficient needs assessment and suggest avenues for future improvement of needs assessment methods.