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Extreme weather events, or low-likelihood, high-impact (LLHI) events, disproportionately affect insect populations. Mechanistic models reveal these events, especially heat extremes, could drive severe declines in abundant species, impacting ecosystems.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Population Dynamics

Background:

  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts an increase in extreme weather events.
  • Low-likelihood, high-impact (LLHI) events pose significant risks due to nonlinear responses in populations.
  • Forecasting biodiversity responses to climate change necessitates mechanistic models integrating fundamental biological processes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a mechanistic model integrating climate extremes and resource scarcity to forecast demographic impacts on insect populations.
  • To assess the impact of LLHI events on the entire life cycle of a Mediterranean insect species.
  • To identify critical life stages and climate drivers affecting population dynamics under current and future climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Constructed a matrix population model (MPM) using long-term monitoring data from an insect population in a Mediterranean region.
  • Integrated the effects of extreme microclimatic heat and drought-induced host-plant scarcity on susceptible early life stages.
  • Simulated population dynamics under current climatic conditions and future climate scenarios, including those not meeting the Paris Agreement targets.

Main Results:

  • Juvenile life stages exhibited the largest relative contribution to population dynamics.
  • Drought impacts significantly influenced simulated population rates, leading to a mosaic of declining and non-declining populations.
  • Simulations indicated that LLHI heat extremes under future climate scenarios could cause widespread and severe population declines in the studied insect species.

Conclusions:

  • LLHI events, particularly heat extremes, may emerge as a critical, overlooked driver of insect population declines.
  • The decline of abundant insect species due to LLHI events could threaten essential ecosystem functions.
  • Process-based, whole-cycle modeling approaches are crucial for accurately assessing the demographic impacts of climate change on biodiversity.