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Updated: May 15, 2025

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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Traditional vs. AI-generated meteorological risks for emergency predictions.

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  • 1FEMTO-ST Institute, UMR 6174 CNRS, University of Franche-Comté, Belfort, France.

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|April 8, 2025
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Summary

Large Language Models (LLMs) improve firefighter prediction by generating meteorological risk features, outperforming traditional data sources for high-risk interventions but showing limitations in low-risk scenarios and summer months.

Keywords:
Large Language Model (LLM)XGBoostfeature selectionfirefighters interventionprediction

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Area of Science:

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Meteorology
  • Emergency Response

Background:

  • Accurate prediction of firefighter interventions is crucial for effective emergency response.
  • Traditional meteorological data sources may have limitations in critical situations requiring rigorous prioritization.
  • Weather-related risks increasingly influence firefighter activities, necessitating precise meteorological information.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze and optimize firefighter prediction performance using Large Language Models (LLMs) for feature selection.
  • To compare the efficacy of meteorological risk features extracted from Météo France versus those generated by LLMs.
  • To investigate the impact of different feature extraction methods on predicting firefighter interventions.

Main Methods:

  • Data preparation and comprehensive analysis of feature extraction approaches.
  • Leveraging machine learning models (XGBoost, Random Forest, SVM) for prediction.
  • Evaluating prediction results using two feature spaces: F1 (Météo France data) and F2 (LLM-generated data).

Main Results:

  • Models trained with LLM-generated features (F2) consistently showed superior performance.
  • Significant annual improvements in prediction accuracy were observed, especially for high and very high intervention activities.
  • LLM-generated features were less effective for low intervention activities and underperformed in summer compared to traditional data.

Conclusions:

  • LLM-based feature generation offers a promising methodology for enhancing firefighter prediction and resource management.
  • This approach can accelerate response times and contribute to life preservation by reducing critical incident failure risks.
  • Further research may refine LLM feature extraction for specific conditions like low-activity periods and seasonal variations.