Climate change impacts and the reshaping of Canadian viticulture

Shifting climate patterns across wine-growing areas of Ontario, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Quebec are driving the development of new viticultural potential within established Canadian wine regions. Changing trends of critical climatic variables and indices, such as near-surface temperature (NST) and growing degree days, indicate that growing conditions are changing. This research assesses NST and seasonal precipitation trends from 1994 to 2100 for Canadian viticulture, focusing on the primary established growing regions. Using multi-model CMIP6 spatial-temporal averages from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset available on Google Earth Engine, this research aims to understand future NST and seasonal precipitation trends with climate scenarios SSP245 and SSP585 and discuss possible effects on viticulture on a near-term (2015-2050) and long-term (2050-2100) basis. Minimum, average, and maximum NST trends demonstrated statistically significant increases across all regions, with similar increasing precipitation trends across the growing season. Increasing trends, especially trends of extreme temperature, can all influence grape quality and, ultimately, wine quality. Outcomes suggest warmer growing climates, which may benefit wine producers, but the increasing frequency of extreme climate-change-related events such as drought, heatwaves, or extreme rainfall suggests potential future challenges that will require careful management.