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Assessing the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate interventions using a multi-layered temporal network.

Yunyi Cai¹, Weiyi Wang¹, Lanlan Yu¹

¹College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.

Infectious Disease Modelling

|April 9, 2025

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) can contain infectious disease outbreaks with low transmission, but becomes less effective and costly as the reproduction number increases. Comprehensive contact data is crucial for improving TTI strategies.

Keywords:

Epidemic modeling Multi-layer temporal network Non-pharmaceutical interventions Test-trace-isolate

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Public Health
Network Science

Background:

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are critical in early infectious disease outbreaks.
Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) is a key NPI, reliant on effective contact identification.

Purpose of the Study:

To model transmission dynamics using a multi-layer temporal contact network.
To assess the impact of various TTI strategies on outbreak containment and epidemic mitigation.
To use SARS-CoV-2 as a case study for evaluating TTI effectiveness.

Main Methods:

Development of a multi-layer temporal contact network model.
Simulation of different Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) implementation scenarios.
Evaluation of TTI effectiveness based on outbreak containment and epidemic burden reduction.

Main Results:

TTI with home isolation and testing of primary/secondary contacts contains outbreaks up to a reproduction number (R) of 1.3 (88.2% prevention potential).
For R > 1.7, TTI mitigates disease burden but incurs high social costs (e.g., >1 month isolation/quarantine).
Contact quarantine strategies show higher epidemic prevention potential than those avoiding contact tracing or requiring pre-isolation testing.

Conclusions:

Relying solely on TTI for novel pathogens like SARS-CoV-2 presents challenges for outbreak containment.
TTI effectiveness is sensitive to contact pattern modeling; comprehensive social interaction data is vital for preparedness.
Combining TTI with other social distancing measures can enhance outbreak control but has limitations at high R values.