Predicting Pregnancy in Preconception Weight Loss Trials: Is it Possible?

Area of Science:

• Reproductive Health
• Clinical Trials
• Behavioral Science

Background:

• Predicting conception is crucial for preconception weight loss intervention trials.
• Accurate prediction aids in trial design and participant selection.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate self-reported pregnancy likelihood and timing as predictors of conception.
• To assess the accuracy of these self-reported measures in a preconception cohort.

Main Methods:

• Adults (n=184) with overweight/obesity and prior gestational diabetes mellitus participated in a weight loss intervention or control.
• Participants reported estimated pregnancy likelihood (1-10) and expected timeframe at baseline.

Main Results:

• 62 participants (30%) conceived over 4 years.
• A high likelihood of pregnancy rating (8-10) was associated with higher conception rates (45.7% vs. 21.1%).
• Sensitivity and specificity of high likelihood rating for predicting conception were 69% and 58%, respectively.

Conclusions:

• Self-reported pregnancy likelihood is a predictor of conception but has limited accuracy.
• Additional screening methods are needed to improve conception prediction in preconception trials.