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Comparative validation of the Mayo Clinic imaging classification and PROPKD score for predicting ADPKD progression across diverse ethnic cohorts

  • 0Division of Nephrology, SSM Health Saint Louis University Hospital, Saint Louis, MO, USA. yasar.caliskan@health.slu.edu.
Journal of Nephrology +

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April 9, 2025

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April 9, 2025

View abstract on PubMed

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

The PROPKD score moderately predicts kidney failure in Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). Black ethnicity and age are key predictors of kidney failure in ADPKD patients.

Area Of Science

  • Nephrology
  • Genetics
  • Epidemiology

Background

  • Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a leading cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD).
  • Predictive models are crucial for managing ADPKD progression.
  • Evaluating existing predictive tools like MCIC and PROPKD is essential.

Purpose Of The Study

  • To compare the predictive accuracy of the Mayo Clinic Imaging Class (MCIC) and Predicting Renal Outcome in Polycystic Kidney Disease (PROPKD) score for ESKD progression in ADPKD.
  • To assess the concordance, sensitivity, and specificity of these scores.
  • To identify key predictors of kidney failure in a diverse ADPKD cohort.

Main Methods

  • Retrospective multicenter cohort study involving 187 adult ADPKD patients with PKD1 or PKD2 variants.
  • Comparison of MCIC and PROPKD scores for predicting progression to ESKD.
  • ESKD defined by sustained low eGFR or initiation of kidney replacement therapy.

Main Results

  • The PROPKD score demonstrated moderate predictive ability (AUC=0.702) for ESKD progression, outperforming the MCIC score (AUC=0.578).
  • PROPKD showed better performance in Black patients (AUC=0.800) compared to White patients (AUC=0.764).
  • Self-identified Black ethnicity (HR=12.24) and age at initial follow-up (HR=1.05) were significant predictors of ESKD.

Conclusions

  • The PROPKD score is a valuable tool for predicting ADPKD progression across diverse ethnic groups.
  • Self-identified Black ethnicity and age are critical factors influencing kidney failure risk in ADPKD.
  • Further research may refine risk stratification using these predictors.

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