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Climate mitigation potential for targeted forestation after considering climate change, fires, and albedo
Shijing Liang1,2,3,4, Alan D Ziegler5, Peter B Reich2,6,7
1School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
Science Advances
|April 9, 2025
Summary
Afforestation and reforestation are key for mitigating global warming. This study estimates forestation can sequester 31.3 to 69.2 Pg Ceq by 2100, but regional differences and disturbances are crucial factors.
Area of Science:
- Earth System Science
- Climate Change Mitigation
- Forest Ecology
Background:
- Afforestation and reforestation are promoted for mitigating anthropogenic warming.
- Satellite assessments of carbon sequestration potential are uncertain due to dynamic climate, feedback loops, disturbances, and albedo changes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the carbon sequestration potential of global forestation using a coupled Earth system model.
- To analyze regional variations and influencing factors on forestation's mitigation capacity.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a coupled Earth system model for simulations.
- Estimated carbon mitigation potential (Pg Ceq) from 2021-2100 under a sustainable socioeconomic pathway.
- Analyzed regional differences, considering climate dynamics, vegetation-climate feedback, fire disturbances, and surface albedo effects.
Main Results:
- Global forestation is estimated to mitigate 31.3 to 69.2 Pg Ceq between 2021 and 2100.
- Tropical regions show the highest carbon mitigation potential.
- Mid-high-latitude regions exhibit greater heterogeneity, requiring region-specific strategies.
Conclusions:
- Forestation's carbon mitigation potential is significant but influenced by dynamic factors like disturbances and albedo changes.
- Region-specific strategies are essential for effective nature-based climate mitigation plans.
- Development of high-resolution maps for targeted forestation is recommended, avoiding sensitive lands and conflicts.
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