Vulnerability of Gubernatrix cristata to climate change, anthropogenic pressures, and hybridization threats

Estimating extinction risk is challenging due to insufficient data on current and future threats. This study develops a framework incorporating the impacts of climate change, anthropogenic pressures, and biotic interactions for assessing extinction risks using the endangered Yellow Cardinal (Gubernatrix cristata) as a case study. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM) with occurrences, climate, and land use data, we projected current and future distributions of G. cristata, identifying key constraints for its occurrence. Field validation through a citizen science initiative contributed new presence records, supporting our model's predictions. Currently, 4.50% of cardinal's suitable areas overlap with areas of high anthropic pressures, while 27.04% are in contact with the hybridizing species Diuca diuca. Future projections predict a 60% shift in the cardinal's distribution, exacerbating its vulnerability due to greater overlap with areas of high anthropic pressures and reduced presence in protected areas. We identified key risk areas on the distribution's periphery, vulnerable to geographic range loss and increased interaction with D. diuca due to climate change. Targeted management actions are recommended to mitigate further degradation. This study illustrates the potential of integrating citizen science, ENM, and anthropogenic and biotic pressures to develop conservation strategies, offering a versatile, universally applicable framework crucial for global biodiversity and conservation efforts.