An epidemiological model of monkeypox: model prediction and control application.

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling
• Infectious Disease Dynamics

Background:

• Monkeypox (Mpox), caused by the Mpox virus, is an emerging infectious disease that has caused global public health concern.
• Mathematical modeling offers a valuable approach to understanding Mpox transmission dynamics and evaluating control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze a new compartment model for examining vaccine effectiveness against Mpox.
• To explore the impact of various preventive and control measures on Mpox epidemic control using optimal control theory.

Main Methods:

• A novel compartment model was established for Mpox.
• Nonlinear least squares fitting was employed for parameter estimation.
• Optimal control theory was integrated with official Mpox data for analysis.

Main Results:

• The model's equilibrium was found to be locally and globally stable under specific conditions.
• Parameter values were optimized using US Mpox data (2022-2023).
• Sensitivity analysis identified key parameters influencing Mpox epidemics; simultaneous application of all four control measures was most effective.

Conclusions:

• The study provides theoretical insights into Mpox virus transmission.
• Findings support the development of effective Mpox control strategies.