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Related Experiment Video

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Noninvasive prediction model for predicting spontaneous tumor necrosis in hepatocellular carcinoma and prognostic

Qingyong Hong1, Chunmin Li2, Ziqiang Li1

  • 1Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University.

European Journal of Gastroenterology & Hepatology
|April 10, 2025
PubMed
Summary

This study developed a nomogram to predict spontaneous tumor necrosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. The model identifies key clinical factors, aiding in prognosis assessment for HCC with tumor necrosis.

Keywords:
hepatocellular carcinomanomogramprognosistumor necrosis

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Area of Science:

  • Hepatobiliary Surgery
  • Surgical Oncology
  • Diagnostic Imaging

Background:

  • Spontaneous tumor necrosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is linked to high recurrence and poor prognosis.
  • Conventional preoperative imaging lacks the ability to detect tumor necrosis.
  • Accurate prediction of tumor necrosis is crucial for patient management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for spontaneous tumor necrosis in HCC.
  • To identify independent predictors of tumor necrosis in HCC patients.
  • To assess the prognostic value of tumor necrosis in HCC.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective collection of clinical data from 495 HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy.
  • Random division into training (n=348) and validation (n=147) cohorts.
  • Logistic regression for predictor identification and Kaplan-Meier analysis for survival rates.

Main Results:

  • Preoperative factors including TNM stage, hemoglobin, systemic immune-inflammation index, alkaline phosphatase, and alpha-fetoprotein predicted tumor necrosis.
  • The nomogram demonstrated good predictive performance with AUCs of 0.810 (training), 0.758 (validation), and 0.795 (full cohort).
  • Tumor necrosis was significantly associated with poorer overall and recurrence-free survival.

Conclusions:

  • The developed nomogram effectively predicts the risk of spontaneous tumor necrosis in HCC.
  • Tumor necrosis is a significant indicator of a worse prognosis in HCC patients.
  • This tool can aid in preoperative risk stratification and clinical decision-making for HCC.