Investigating the impact of climate change on PCB-153 exposure in Arctic seabirds with the nested exposure model

At the same time Arctic ecosystems experiences rapid climate change, at a rate four times faster than the global average, they remain burdened by long-range transported pollution, notably with legacy polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The present study investigates the potential impact of climate change on seabird exposure to PCB-153 using the established Nested Exposure Model (NEM), here expanded with three seabird species, i.e. common eider (Somateria mollissima), black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) and glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus), as well as the filter feeder blue mussel (Mytulis edulis). The model's performance was evaluated using empirical time trends of the seabird species in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, and using tissue concentrations from filter feeders along the northern Norwegian coast. NEM successfully replicated empirical PCB-153 concentrations, confirming its ability to simulate PCB-153 bioaccumulation in the studied seabird species within an order of magnitude. Based on global PCB-153 emission estimates, simulations run until the year 2100 predicted seabird blood concentrations 99% lower than in year 2000. Model scenarios with climate change-induced altered dietary composition and lipid dynamics showed to have minimal impact on future PCB-153 exposure, compared to temporal changes in primary emissions of PCB-153. The present study suggests the potential of mechanistic modelling in assessing POP exposure in Arctic seabirds within a multiple stressor context.