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Holt-Laury as a gumball machine
Mónica Vasco1, María J Vázquez-De Francisco1,2
1LoyolaBehLab, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Córdoba, Spain.
Plos One
|April 10, 2025
Summary
A visual Gumball Machine task significantly reduces inconsistencies in risk attitude assessments for adolescents, improving upon the standard Holt and Laury task. This visual method is more effective for non-standard subject pools.
Area of Science:
- Behavioral Economics
- Experimental Economics
- Decision Science
Background:
- The Holt and Laury task is a standard method for measuring individual risk attitudes.
- Inconsistencies are high (60-70%) in non-standard populations like adolescents.
- This limits the reliability of economic decision-making research.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate a visual version of the Holt and Laury task, the Gumball Machine task.
- To assess its effectiveness in reducing inconsistencies in risk attitude measurements.
- To explore predictors of consistency and risk preferences in adolescents.
Main Methods:
- A visual Gumball Machine task was administered to 4,972 adolescents.
- Subjects made six choices between two options representing different risk-reward profiles.
- Consistency rates were compared to traditional methods.
Main Results:
- The Gumball Machine task reduced inconsistencies from 60-70% to 20%.
- Cognitive skills were strong predictors of both consistency and risk preferences.
- No significant gender differences in consistency or risk preferences were observed.
Conclusions:
- The visual Gumball Machine task is a more reliable method for assessing risk attitudes in adolescents.
- Cognitive abilities are key factors influencing consistent decision-making under risk.
- This visual approach enhances data quality in economic research involving younger or less experienced participants.
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