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Understanding street protests: from a mathematical model to protest management.
Sergei Petrovskii1,2, Maxim Shishlenin3, Anton Glukhov3
1School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
Plos One
|April 10, 2025
Summary
Mathematical modeling of street protests, like the Yellow Vest Movement, reveals that policing efficiency significantly impacts protest duration and participant numbers. This research aids in understanding and managing public demonstrations.
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- Computational Social Science
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Street protests are a historical driver of social change but can cause disruptions and economic losses.
- Understanding factors influencing protest duration and size is crucial for societal management.
- Mathematical modeling offers an efficient approach to study protest dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a novel mathematical model for analyzing street protest dynamics.
- To incorporate protester behavior heterogeneity and policing effects into the model.
- To validate the model using the 2018-2019 Yellow Vest Movement in France.
Main Methods:
- Development of a new mathematical modeling framework.
- Inclusion of protester behavior variability.
- Integration of policing impact variables.
- Case study analysis of the Yellow Vest Movement data.
Main Results:
- The model demonstrated strong agreement with empirical data from the Yellow Vest Movement.
- A moderate increase in daily police efficiency significantly reduced protest intensity and duration.
- Policing strategies can be optimized for protest management.
Conclusions:
- The developed model accurately captures key dynamics of street protests.
- Policing plays a critical role in modulating protest outcomes.
- Findings offer insights for more effective protest management strategies.
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