A deep learning model for clinical outcome prediction using longitudinal inpatient electronic health records

Recent advances in deep learning show significant potential in analyzing continuous monitoring electronic health records (EHR) data for clinical outcome prediction. We aim to develop a Transformer-based, Encounter-level Clinical Outcome (TECO) model to predict mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU) using inpatient EHR data.

The TECO model was developed using multiple baseline and time-dependent clinical variables from 2579 hospitalized COVID-19 patients to predict ICU mortality and was validated externally in an acute respiratory distress syndrome cohort (n = 2799) and a sepsis cohort (n = 6622) from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV). Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) and compared with Epic Deterioration Index (EDI), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost).

In the COVID-19 development dataset, TECO achieved higher AUC (0.89-0.97) across various time intervals compared to EDI (0.86-0.95), RF (0.87-0.96), and XGBoost (0.88-0.96). In the 2 MIMIC testing datasets (EDI not available), TECO yielded higher AUC (0.65-0.77) than RF (0.59-0.75) and XGBoost (0.59-0.74). In addition, TECO was able to identify clinically interpretable features that were correlated with the outcome.

The TECO model outperformed proprietary metrics and conventional machine learning models in predicting ICU mortality among patients with COVID-19, widespread inflammation, respiratory illness, and other organ failures.

The TECO model demonstrates a strong capability for predicting ICU mortality using continuous monitoring data. While further validation is needed, TECO has the potential to serve as a powerful early warning tool across various diseases in inpatient settings.