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The prognostic role of vegetation size in pediatric infective endocarditis: a retrospective study using decision
Yonghan Luo1,2, Xiaotao Yang1, Feng Jiao1
1Second Department of Infectious Disease, Kunming Children's Hospital, Yunnan key specialty of pediatric infection (training and education program)/Kunming key specialty of pediatric infection, Kunming, 650000, Yunnan, China.
Insights
Vegetation size is a key predictor of prognosis in pediatric infective endocarditis (IE). Larger vegetation size correlates with poorer outcomes, highlighting its clinical importance.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Cardiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Medical Prognostics
Background:
- Pediatric infective endocarditis (IE) is a serious condition requiring accurate prognostic indicators.
- Identifying factors that predict outcomes in pediatric IE is crucial for timely and effective management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the predictive value of cardiac vegetation size for the prognosis of pediatric infective endocarditis.
- To assess the clinical utility of vegetation size in determining IE outcomes in children.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 27 pediatric IE cases from Kunming Children's Hospital (2014-2024).
- Comparison of clinical and laboratory data between good (n=10) and bad (n=17) prognosis groups.
- Utilized receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, restricted cubic spline models, and decision curve analysis.
Main Results:
- Significant differences in vegetation size, hemoglobin, platelet count, and prothrombin time were found between prognosis groups (P < 0.05).
- ROC analysis showed high predictive accuracy for vegetation size (AUC = 0.841).
- Decision curve analysis confirmed substantial clinical value; cubic spline analysis suggested a linear dose-response relationship.
Conclusions:
- Vegetation size, along with hemoglobin, platelet count, and prothrombin time, significantly differs between pediatric IE prognosis groups.
- Vegetation size emerges as a critical factor for predicting pediatric IE prognosis.
- Larger studies are recommended to validate these findings and confirm predictive accuracy.
Objective:
To explore the predictive value of vegetation size on the prognosis of pediatric infective endocarditis (IE).
Methods:
A total of 27 children diagnosed with IE who were admitted to Kunming Children's Hospital from January 2014 to June 2024 were included. The good prognosis group comprised 10 cases, while the bad prognosis group comprised 17 cases. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, restricted cubic spline model, and decision curve analysis were utilized to assess the predictive value of vegetation size on the prognosis of pediatric IE.
Results:
There were statistically significant differences in vegetation size, hemoglobin, platelet count, and prothrombin time between the two groups (P < 0.05). The ROC curve demonstrated that vegetation size had a high predictive accuracy for the prognosis of pediatric IE (AUC = 0.841, 95% CI: 0.775-0.924). Decision curve analysis indicated that vegetation size held substantial clinical value for predicting the prognosis of pediatric IE. The restricted cubic spline analysis revealed a linear dose-response relationship between vegetation size and prognosis of pediatric IE (nonlinear test, P = 0.084).
Conclusion:
Significant differences were observed in vegetation size, hemoglobin, platelet count, and prothrombin time between different prognosis of pediatric IE. Limited evidence indicates that vegetation size is a critical factor in predicting the prognosis of pediatric IE. However, studies with larger sample sizes are needed to confirm the accuracy of these conclusions.

